BTC Bearish Clues : Bearish Bat Pattern and Falling Wedge Stop

Тема в разделе "English", создана пользователем Trading Ideas, 16 июн 2019.

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    BTC Bearish Clues : Bearish Bat Pattern and Falling Wedge Stop
    BTC/USD COINBASE:BTCUSD
    SainTrader
    ECqMbRip_mid.png
    In the begin of this week, the consensus of technical analyst was clearly the following one : Bitcoin is going to sink again !

    Not considering if Bitcoin is a good asset to invest in the long term or not, the doji formed on a weekly chart by end of May was a clear bearish sign and many analysts were surprised when the falling wedge has been broken on June, 10th by high buying volumes.
    More than that, these last 2 days BTC broke up a rising wedge , canceling the head and shoulder pattern many people were anticipating.
    Since then, the consensus changed and we can observe everyone is very bullish on the most famous crypto asset.

    Nevertheless, I think this is a good time to highlight things I have not read yet.

    • First of all, we cannot consider BTC is back before it makes a higher high (higher than 9108$ of May, 30th).

    • Secondly, as you can see on the graph, a perfect bearish bat pattern (XABCD) has been formed today.
      Even if this harmonic pattern is consider as the most reliable one, I can understand that this is not enough to conclude that BTC will not go higher tomorrow.

      But there are other signs that show BTC weakness in the coming days.

    • And we come to our third (an maybe strongest) clue : the point D that confirm the pattern formation combine exactly with the extended line that goes by the all time high of BTCUSD and the recent 9100$ level we have seen. This is not visible on this chart, but you can try to draw the extended line going through these 2 points, and you will find out that we are exactly there now.

    • Finally, there is an RSI divergence (as you can see on the bottom indicator). This divergence is also visible on a daily chart .

    Following these observations, I conclude that BTC will not go higher now.
    First target is point B of the bat pattern (between 8000 and 8100$).
    Second target is point C of the bat pattern (around 7500$).

    Stop loss can be set above 9100$ level.
    If BTC goes higher than that level and can consolidate there, all these analysis is wrong, and something else is probably happening).

    Hope you will enjoy it, and that it can help some (lost) people.

    Cheers,
    Saint.
     
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